Real-Time Climate page. Link to JISAO main page on left.
Analyses
Forecasts
Climate Impacts
U.S. Drought
Indian Monsoon



Analyses: rainfall | temperature | pressure
| geopotential height




Rainfall




  • Global
    
monthly
maps (NCEP)
    
30,
90, and 365 day rainfall accumulations for selected stations
(NCEP)
    

  • 60N-60S
    
5-day,
monthly
Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) (NCEP)
    

  • United States
    
maps,
time series, and tables (NCEP)
    
    


    

Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
    
    

Nino 1+2, Nino 3, Nino 4 anomaly indices (averaging regions):
    

  •  figure: last
12 months,
1982-present; 

digital
values
 (NCEP)
    

  • "Nino" indice standard
deviations:  How unusual is a 1C anomaly?
    


Weekly
tropical Pacific total and anomaly  | animation (NCEP)
    
Weekly,
monthly,
and seasonal
anomalies | weekly
anomaly animation (CDC)
    
weekly or shorter means (NESDIS)
    
5-day mean | 
monthly
mean Tropical Pacific mean and anomaly maps (PMEL)
    



Land Surface Temperature
    
    

timeseries for the last 30, 90, and 365 days (NCEP)
    
hemispheric-
and global-means (Tiempo)
    

global means for land only and land + ocean (GISS)
    



Eq. Pacific Ocean longitude-depth temperature section
    
    
last
month  (PMEL)
    



Sea-level Pressure (SLP)
    
    


  • The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is the difference in
normalized SLP anomalies for Tahiti and Darwin (Australia)
(Tahiti minus Darwin),
and it is an indicator of the atmospheric component of the El
Niño / Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO).  
Negative values of the SOI are associated with above normal sea
surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, and these conditions
are commonly called a warm ENSO episode.  Positive SOI values are
associated with cold Pacific SSTs, and this is called a cold ENSO episode.
    
SOI plot
(NCEP)
    
digital values for 1882-1950
 , 1951-present (NCEP)

    

  • map
 for 50N-50S (NCEP)
    



500 hPa Geopotential Height
Anomalies
    
    

Weekly, monthly, and seasonal anomalies (CDC)
    



Analysis Sources:
    
    

CDC:  NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center
    
GISS: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
    

NCEP: NOAA
National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Prediction
Center
    
NWS: National Weather Service
    
PMEL: NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
    
Tiempo
    
Still more
analyses can be found at the
    
International Research Institute for
Climate and Society
    
NOAA
NCEP Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
    


    

    

    


    

    

    
Climate forecasts:
    

Most of the forecast products that are available are very technical,
so non-scientists be warned.  Much of the effort in seasonal climate forecasting is
expended in forecasting tropical Pacific sea surface
temperatures (SSTs), and in particular, how the SSTs in this region vary from one
year to the next.  These fluctuations are associated with the El Niño / Southern Oscillation
phenomenon (ENSO), which the popular press calls El Niño / La Niña.
    


Global temperature and precipitation forecasts:
    

  • NCEP
Climate Prediction Center forecasts Somewhat technical.
    


  •  International
Research Intsitute for Climate and Society Somewhat techincal
    


Tropical Pacific SST forecasts:
    


  • NCEP ENSO advisory Easiest to understand.
    

  • NCEP Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Scroll down to the forecast forum.  Somewhat technical.
    


  • International Research Intsitute for Climate and Societyn
    
SST
maps | Nino3.4
forecasts and model documentation Technical
    



  • Linear
inverse model Very technical
    

  • European
Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal coupled ocean-atmosphere model Nino3 SST anomaly Very
technical
    

    The standard deviation (C) of "Nino3" and "Nino3.4" SST by calendar month (1950-79).
         Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec
Nino3    0.93 0.68 0.44 0.53 0.63 0.67 0.75 0.85 0.87 0.89 1.03 1.08
Nino3.4  1.05 0.79 0.59 0.53 0.52 0.53 0.60 0.72 0.80 0.88 1.04 1.06
    
The standard deviations for other periods are provided here.

    


  • Ed Sarachik maintains a very nice WWW page of different forecast
products.  This site and the sites it references are without
discussion.  Scroll down on this link to get to the forecasts. Very technical.
    

Forecasts of precipitation and air temperatures over land
    
International
Research Intsitute for Climate and Society  Much, if not all, of the
forecast skill in this forecast is due to the ability to predict ENSO variability.
    


    

    



    

    

Climate impacts:
    


  • global |
U.S.
| U.S. Pacific
Northwest
    

  • Typical ENSO ("El Niño" and "La Niña")
impacts around the globe
    


    

    

Typical ENSO climate impacts
    

What are the present conditions in the equatorial Pacific?
    
The
latest Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and departures from climatology
are linked here.  The bottom panel indicates regions of above and
below normal SST, and conditions on the equator between 180 and 120°W are interpreted in
the popular press as "El Niño" (above normal SST, red shading)
or "La Niña" (below normal SST, blue shading), respectively.
We tend to refer to these variations in the equatorial Pacific SST as
warm and cold ENSO episodes, respectively, and we reserve the term "El
Niño" to mean the periods of above normal SST along the Peru
and Ecuador coast.  El Niño and ENSO warm episodes often occur
at the same time.
    

How does the ENSO typically influence the climate in the
Pacific Northwest and around the globe?
    
1) Impact
on the Pacific Northwest of the United States
    
2) Global Impacts
    
The following links are in order of increasing technical
difficulty.

  •  Reports to the
Nation: El Niño and Climate Prediction
    

  •  "El
Niño/La Niña, Nature's Vicious Cycle" from National
Geographic
    



  •  A simple description of the primary impacts of warm ENSO
episodes on
North American climate is presented next.  Changes of
the climate in the opposite sense are normally observed during cold
ENSO episodes.
    
December through April:
    
Changes in the preferred regions of storms produce variations in
precipitation and surface temperature in the indicated regions: image | PostScript | JPEG.
    


June through November:
    
Changes in the number of hurricanes and tropical storms in the
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and eastern Pacific.  More hurricanes
and tropical storms are found in the eastern Pacific and fewer in the
Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea during ENSO warm episode years, as
shown by the daily storm positions in the left panel.  ENSO cold
episodes, in contrast, are characterized by fewer Pacific and more
Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea storms.  ENSO does not seem to affect
the number of storms in the main Atlantic basin.  image | PostScript | JPEG
    



  • The
International Research Institute for Climate and Society provides a detailed description of typical ENSO anomalies
in different parts of the world.
    

Still more information on ENSO is available at:
    

  •  NOAA Office of Global
Programs: a potpourri of monitoring, modelling, and impacts resources
    

  •  NOAA Pacific
Marine Environmental Laboratory: lots of near real-time graphics
of equatorial Pacific Ocean climate
    




    

    


    

    2004
    Todd Mitchell (mitchell@atmos.washington.edu)
    

JISAO  data


	Link to JISAO main page.